In a previous post, Trend in Global Fires, I showed the global fire trend in the last 21 years. I found a source with more data, extending to 1982. It comes from a project funded by European Space Agency. Right here. Actual data is downloaded from UK servers, here.
1994 is missing in their data, but that’s alright. It’s obvious that carbon dioxide has zero effect on fires. Anyone who tells you otherwise is a liar, an imbecile, or just plain ignorant. The latter can be cured.
Short post. Enjoy 🙂 -Zoe
Update
I just realize this data is also plotted at ESA’s site (they sponsored this data):
You see what they did there?
Stretched out the chart so you can barely notice any trend. Biased much?
Download My Data
You can download monthly data at https://pastebin.com/raw/3eVDrgLb
Code
# Zoe Phin, 2022/06/05
# File: firea.sh
# Run: . firea.sh; require; download; index; plot
# Output: fire.csv, firearea.png
require() { sudo apt-get install -y nco gnuplot; }
download() {
for y in {1982..1993} {1995..2018}; do for m in {01..12}; do
echo "wget -cO $y$m.nc https://dap.ceda.ac.uk/neodc/esacci/fire/data/burned_area/AVHRR-LTDR/grid/v1.1/$y/$y${m}01-ESACCI-L4_FIRE-BA-AVHRR-LTDR-fv1.1.nc"
done;done > get.sh; bash get.sh
}
index() {
for y in {1982..1993} {1995..2018}; do for m in {01..12}; do
echo -n "$y $m "
ncks -HC --trd -v burned_area $y$m.nc | awk -F '[= ]' '$8!=0 {
S+=$8 } END { printf "%.3f\n",S/1e9 }'
done;done | tee fire.area
}
plot() {
awk '{ Y[$1]+=$3 } END {
for (y in Y) { printf "%d %.3f\n",y,Y[y]/1000 }
}' fire.area > fire.csv
echo "set term png size 740,540; set nokey;
set title 'Global Area Burned (Million km²)'
set xrange [1981:2019]; #set yrange [320:440]
set mxtics 5
set grid xtics ytics
plot 'fire.csv' u 1:2 t 'Million m² Burned' w lines lw 2 lc rgb 'red'
" | gnuplot > firearea.png
}
Zoe's Insights 
What are the chances of finding a map of the earth and we monitor how much land we have installed pavement or asphalt since 1850? Sure would be interesting to see the amount of pavement and temperatures going up considering the NWS and NOAA have all of their weather stations near highways , airports and othe paved areas..co2 is not driving temperatures up
LikeLiked by 1 person
Meh, the space aliens aren’t sharing their 1850 remote sensing data.
LikeLike
Great work “Smarty Pants,” but you know we are up against the “Inquisition,”……As some ecclesiastic Abbot once said to his novice ….”There is the truth…..then there is the truth according to the faith……Because not all true things can be said to all men”
https://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcafee&type=E210US1267G0&p=monty+python+spanish+inquisition
LikeLiked by 1 person
Yes yes, we are ruled by magic, i.e. B.S. and threats.
LikeLike
Thanks for the graph. For a long time it has seemed to me that if I carried a grudge from some distant land invaded by US DEA and whatnot to the point of wrecking the economy, it would be tempting to set forest fires and watch two equally despised alien factions blame each other for it. No good comes of forcibly meddling abroad, but a whole lotta harm could easily result, with proximate causes camouflaged by factions squabbling over the power to coerce.
LikeLike
You’re back!
I missed your posts, which I enjoyed writing about.
Will definitely look to see what I can do with your latest.
Cheers
LikeLike
Thank you. Ignore last.
LikeLike
I “borrowed” your active fires chart from 2021
for my climate science and energy blog.
But I had to include a long explanation
saying forest fires are believed to be
90% man made and 10% natural,
so I had no logical reason to assume
a tiny change in the global average
temperature would cause careless
(and sometimes criminal) people
to set more fires.
And that if forests were already dry
in California, for one example, and the
forests were mismanaged
(trees not trimmed around power lines
and no clearing of dead trees), a few tenths
of a degree warmer would not make the
already dry forests any drier,
and would not affect forest management.
Meaning that borrowing your 2021 chart
ended up causing a lot of typing work
for me. So I’m not borrowing this new chart,
because I’m allergic to work.
Sorry, but I don’t see a good logical connection
between tiny temperature changes and
active fire counts (in the satellite age),
or acres burned. There might be a correlation
of forest fires and precipitation.
LikeLike
Nice work. There is so much empty space in the ESA’s graphs due to the deceptive expansion of the ordinate scale, does the empty space also correspond to their minds or their scientific integrity? The later I suspect. So much deceptive manipulation going on in statistical analyses to support the narrative eg stratification that gives a strong trend for one strata where point estimates are subject to much greater uncertainty than the no trend strata and then use an unweighted average trend to get a stronger trend to support the narrative! See my expose here https://journalarrb.com/index.php/ARRB/article/view/30460.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Thank you.
Didn’t even know there was discussion on this. By narrative you mean “X is disappearing or getting smaller due to bad bad humans?”
LikeLike
By “narrative” one aspect is “hide the decline”! Not sure what you mean about the X-axis. No chance to manipulate the X-axis since it’s year. Humans would love to and have fantasised about manipulating time but for good or bad we a stuck in the one-way flow.
LikeLike
lol. X means “anything”. Polar Bears, Aardvarks, Armadillos, Krill, etc…
LikeLike
Ohh now I get it. Yeah true true
LikeLiked by 1 person
The “hide the decline” was another manipulation of removing tree growth ring data that didn’t positively correlate with the modern instrumental temperature record see Judith Curry’s articles
LikeLike
Thanks. I’m not that young. Very familiar. Opened my eyes ~2007.
LikeLike
Fair enough but not as ancient as yours truly. I was trying to make the point, not very proficiently, following on from your comment on the ESA graphs of some of the statistical dirty tricks used to support “the narrative” across a range of specific response variables eg global area burnt by wildfires, population trends in species X etc,
LikeLike
Kinda grateful when they do it. Give the game away …
LikeLike
I’m going to have to learn how to use R. Any tutorial suggestions?
LikeLike
I haven’t used R since university. Willis is the guy to ask. He shared some code with me, and it reminded me why I stopped using it. I use Bash/Awk/Gnuplot with some snippets of Python for speed. I also know a little JS and still remember some x86 assembly from my high-frequency trading days.
LikeLike
Try R-commander a GUI menu-based basic stats library that gives you the R-code. Easy way to learn and be productive at the same time. https://socialsciences.mcmaster.ca/jfox/Misc/Rcmdr/
LikeLike
“It’s obvious that carbon dioxide has zero effect on fires” is not a legitimate conclusion from the reduction of global area burned. Rather, reduction in area of fire due to changes in human behavior such as shifts in agricultural burning practices and locations of human settlements, so far has been offsetting the increased area burned from the increased number of *wild*fires that has been happening due to global warming and the consequent other climate changes. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90493/researchers-detect-a-global-drop-in-fires
LikeLike
“has been happening due to global warming and the consequent other climate changes.”
In other words … they have zero evidence for those claims but they say it anyway. They bring it into the realm of the unfalsifiable. Always excuses from these spin doctors.
Try this one:
If I wasn’t born the Earth would’ve imploded.
See? You should worship me. You can’t debunk this!
LikeLike
Here are several posts about wildfire and global warming: https://tamino.wordpress.com/?s=wildfire
LikeLike
lol, Why do you play into what was already mentioned? Cherrypicking times and places and using affirming-the-consequent logical fallacy. Are you just seeking attention?
LikeLike