There’s some articles claiming that US deaths from all causes is lower this year than previous years. Is it true?
No, it is not true. Here’s my result:
Year Pop. Deaths %
2011 311556874 2512442 0.806%
2012 313830990 2501531 0.797%
2013 315993715 2608019 0.825%
2014 318301008 2582448 0.811%
2015 320635163 2699826 0.842%
2016 322941311 2703215 0.837%
2017 324985539 2788163 0.858%
2018 326687501 2824382 0.865%
2019 328239523 2835038 0.864%
2020 331937300 3290723 0.991%Code… uscovid.sh:
# Zoe Phin
# 2020/12/15
download() {
wget -O covid.csv -c 'https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/xkkf-xrst/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD&bom=true&format=true%20target='
wget -O popul.csv -c 'https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2019/national/totals/nst-est2019-alldata.csv'
}
usdeaths() {
echo 'Year Pop. Deaths %'
(sed -n 2p popul.csv | tr ',' '\n' | sed -n 9,17p > .pop
sed -n 2p popul.csv | tr ',' '\n' | sed -n 39,47p > .death
for y in {2011..2019}; do echo $y; done | paste -d ' ' - .pop .death
awk -F, 'NR<9999 && $2~/States/ && substr($1,1,4)==2020 {
S+=$3; "date +%j -d "$1 | getline D } END {
printf "2020 331002651 %d\n",366/D*S }' covid.csv
) | awk '{
printf "%s %5.3f%\n", $0, $3/$2*100
}'
}
Run it:
$ source uscovid.sh && download && usdeathsNote 1: As of writing this, the current year has 340 days of data. What I did was multiply the death count by 366/340.
Note 2: US 2020 population estimate number came from here. It will already be obsolete by the time you read this. Expect a little error in %.
I believe American population is growing older.
Ie, the baby boom
And seen a graph of increasing deaths per year projected for future {nothing to do with this year 2020}.
So I think you have include this factor.
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That’s great. I’ve heard this before as well:
More older people -> more deaths.
What I don’t understand is how 1 year made such a jump in longevity. Please explain, if you can.
I’d understand if there was a large migratory wave of those hardy 90+ year old Koreans and Japanese, but I don’t see that.
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A quick check:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data-visualization/mortality-trends/index.htm
I think indicates what I am talking about
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Doesn’t explain a large 1-year jump in deaths.
Also: flat for last decade.
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Well china virus killed more people.
Though particularly older people of course.
The shutdown also killed more people.
It not safe to cause economic hardship.
I imagine simply a recession as general matter, causes more deaths.
But that is a guess.
The politicians as general matter screw up badly with nursing homes.
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As general matter, I would say we were about 1 month too late {due to China cover up} and due to Impeachment.
Trump was about 1 week late to shutting down air travel {and related to Impeachment} with data we had.
But 1 month {or more late} due to China mismanagement and bad action.
I always though New York State and city in particular were 1 week late with their shutdown, but didn’t know virus already in US {long before I imagined it was}. Or politically a week late. But should be doing stuff a month earlier but no data at that time to support it.
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I think you find the mystery Biden voters.
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Thanks Zoe.
Great data.
I had been hearing the other story, ie the flat line and no increase.
What this might suggest is a 0.15% mortality rate though?
Ie one in 700 ? Worst case on this data 0.2% ie 1 in 500 per population per year?
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