Today I analyze COVID19 data for my home state of Georgia. I thought it would be interesting because there is an anomaly. Let’s see the anamoly:
You see it? The largest density of cases does not match the largest density of population. We would expect most cases per 100K to be in the 9th largest metropolis in the US (Atlanta), but it’s not!
How could this be? What could cause such an anomaly?
It might have something to do with foreign labor? Georgia is the 2nd largest recipient of temporary agricultural H-2A visas in 2019 (Source). Trend:
There’s no data as to which counties migrant workers go to, but we can take a logical leap: The most agriculturally productive counties probably have the most migrant workers.
We would expect those counties with the largest share of agriculture to be those disproportionately affected by COVID19. Let’s see …
It’s not a perfect match, but I think there’s something to it. Maybe I am wrong, but I haven’t found a better explanation from my local media. In fact, the issue was not even addressed by anyone.
Other states also have low density counties with high COVID19 densities, but they seldom surpass the rates in their major metro areas. Georgia is anomalous in this regard.
Thoughts? Comments?
Peace, -Zoe
Zoe's Insights 
Interesting analysis, Zoe. An angle I’ve not seen. Gotta love folks who think outside the box.
Thanks,
w.
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Thank you kindly, Willis; That was a very nice comment. 🙂
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Thank you, Zoe. I do my best to call balls and strikes as I see them, not depending on who the batter is.
And so, despite the fact that you and I often disagree on scientific questions, I am obliged to say that was an insightful analysis. You go.
w.
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Greetings, Zoe. Thank you for your analysis for Georgia. My comment: The assumption is that Covid cases (case = positive test result) density should correspond to actual infected persons density which should correspond to population density….but I doubt this assumption holds. I think that Covid cases density is mostly a function of testing density. That is, I think that number of Covid cases detected depends upon the number of tests conducted, and that the number of tests conducted is mainly a function of CDC’s policies and is only weakly a function of number of infected people.
It was a rather interesting coincidence that a plot of USA testing numbers over this spring looks pretty much like a typical epidemic curve. Then, multiplying the testing curve by a fairly constant percentage positive tests (my hypothesis) produces a typical epidemic curve of cases, rapidly and frighteningly increasing over March, as media fodder. I hope that some intrepid person with savvy number crunching skills and access to CDC’s raw (unadjusted) data will look into this hypothesis. The result may change the assessment of . . . the epidemic model predictions and the lockdown policy effectiveness, among other things of more importance.
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CDC Headquarters are in Atlanta.
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Hi Zoe,
Did you know there is an alternative theory to ‘germ theory’ called ‘terrain theory’? I personally have only discovered this since lockdown with the increased social media publicity about it. It’s most interesting once you delve into it. But essentially it calls into question the contagion and transmissibility of viruses between humans and/or animals (i.e bats). Here are some links if you’re interested; one from Dr. Andrew Kaufman who is making the rounds of alternative media (you’ve probably seen him), and another video presentation by Dr. Stefan Lanka, who successfully claimed in a German supreme court that the measles virus hasn’t been proven to exist. Anyway, interesting to say the least. Nicky
https://infectiousmyth.podbean.com/e/the-infectious-myth-andrew-kaufman-coronavirus-is-not-a-virus/
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Yes, very interesting stuff.
Personally, I don’t believe in illness. Let others worry about it. It’s not for me.
I take vitamins, exercise, and eat as much as I want. I weigh 40 kg. I’m that petite. I haven’t been sick in 15 years. Real or imaginary viruses and bacteria can come and go. I will defeat every one of them, or make them work for me 🙂 so I don’t worry about it.
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We have similar genes.
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I have not been ill for over 40 years. I do take some vitamin C daily, about 3 grams. Humans are vitamin C deficient, that’s not a minor thing!
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You look at things with a novel perspective. You may find this article interesting. It suggests an alternative hypothesis to explain the spread and symptomatic infection by covid19.https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/04/28/covid-update-focus-on-vitamin-d/Malcolm Kendrick is a Scottish GP. The references are worth reading. The Virology article suggests a paradigm for this virus. The PlosOne article indicates a mechanism of action, and the Grassrootshealth article provides information on dose. Remember that we get vitamin D from sun exposure, and think how it is affected by season and latitude. Finally, you may find these articles provide more insight:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2870528/http://blogs.creighton.edu/heaney/2015/02/13/the-iom-miscalculated-its-rda-for-vitamin-d/
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Maybe it is measuring governing competence and methods of testing.
Going to crowded hospital, seems like way to get covid19.
I would not do it, unless it big enough problem worth the added risk getting it.
Also in low density area, testing could considered problem to be solved, so one would
focus efforts to do it.
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I think here the idea is to build up your fat soluble vitamins in advance of the virus. Some people think viruses are just exosomes in disguise. This one may have started as a harmless bat exosome before the biowarfare people got to it with gain-of-function projects. A lot of money seems to have been spent setting up Beijing as the patsy.
Perhaps if the exosome theory is correct viruses should be pretty harmless in the clan situation if people are carrying ancestral vitamin D levels. But its no longer a clan situation (probably the key situation for human evolution) everyone wears clothes and are low in vitamin D, and all these environmental and dietary toxins could be exacerbating the effects of these viruses. A lot of these flu viruses start in China and some people think that they get momentum there largely due to some of the soils being low in selenium.
Vitamin D is the key vitamin to be high in when the viruses hit town. But the level of vitamin D I would suggest, would end up clogging up the system with ambient calcium. So once you go in for megadoses of vitamin D you are kind of obliged to take K2 as well. Now it turns out that vitamin A is really good for you and also provides an extra barrier for the virus getting into the cell. But high levels of vitamin A are toxic unless previously you already built up your vitamin D levels.
So really its these three that go together. And high levels of all three will likely make you pretty much immune to most vitamins. If you actually get sick well thats another story, with another strategy to it.
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… immune to most VIRUSES. Sorry for the poor editing.
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Dear Zoe, without having too much information on the local circumstances…these migrant workers are living together in same premises and often sleeping in the same room? Are they going to their work together in the same bus? All poorly ventilated spaces?
It seems there is more and more evidence the virus is spreading mainly through aerosols. This may explain very well the geographical spread of positive cases….
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Someone complained that my research on this topic is “racist”, and yet it has everything to do with their living conditions, exactly as you mentioned. Yep, it’s all about the aerosols. Thank you for the comment, Roy.
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The crop production noted above are not typically labor intensive so I wouldn’t think that explains the rise in those areas of the state early on but in think you are right in noting ethnicity. To me the more likely explanation centers around the cultural and lifestyle differences in different ethnicities. The Black and Hispanic communities are more likely to live in multigenerational homes, that are more dense per square foot leading to a greater familial transmission. Also those ethnicities are less likely to have jobs that allow them to work from home thus leading to a greater chance of coming in contact with the virus.
Early on I read some stuff about vitamin D deficiency and more severe response to the virus. It was being said that people with more skin pigment tend to have lower vitamin D levels for some reason. Maybe there is some explanation in that as well.
As a 35 year old white male working in Whitfield County Georgia (very large Hispanic population) there seems to be a much greater threat to Hispanics my area. I tested positive, along with my wife, 2 year old, and 6 month old. The relative mild symptoms we experienced, head ache and loss of taste and smell, were no comparison to the Hispanics experiences with the virus.
Just some opinions\observations that I have. Really enjoyed your thought though.
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The small cramped living quarters of migrant workers is exactly what I had in mind. Georgia requires each worker to have 300 sq ft, and a bathroom shared by no more than 5 people no farther than 200 ft away. This seams to me to be a bad recipe for spreading viruses.
I haven’t been to Dalton yet. Thanks for the comment. At least some people are curious and not afraid to go where the evidence takes them!
I got critics upset for this article. How dare I go there!
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How does is relate to Dr. Zach Bush’s insights?
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Sorry, forgot to include the video:
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Viruses everywhere all the time? True. What can I make of this? I don’t have a framework to distinguish what is going on in the world right now using this knowledge.
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Impressed as always, and just recommended your blog to a friend in Switzerland where the contagion is spreading and a recent election was held on border permeability.
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